Grain Builds Up in Black Sea Region Amid Maritime Export Constraints

Combined wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia in July-September 2026 were 6.5 million tonnes lower than in the same period last year. If shipping problems persist, the gap could grow to 10.2 million tonnes by the end of October, USM reported, citing estimates presented at an IFPRI-AMIS seminar.

Alternative Routes Cannot Replace the Sea

Some grain cargoes are being redirected via the Danube, railways and Baltic ports. However, these routes are more expensive and cannot fully replace Black Sea export capacity, according to USM.

For Ukraine, the narrowing of the maritime export channel means faster filling of grain storage facilities and more difficult logistics, adding pressure to domestic purchase prices. In Russia, the situation is intensified by a large harvest: forecasts suggest it could reach 140 million tonnes in 2026. Unstable operations at Azov-Black Sea basin ports are keeping grain in producing regions for longer, while wheat prices in southern Russia are falling.

Accumulated Volumes Could Reach Global Markets

Once maritime exports recover, accumulated volumes could have a significant impact on the market. Dragon Capital suggests that in 2027 Ukraine could increase maritime grain exports if there is a diplomatic agreement similar to the 2022-2023 Black Sea Grain Initiative, USM wrote.

A simultaneous return of delayed Ukrainian and Russian volumes to export channels could quickly expand Black Sea wheat supply. The strongest competition for buyers is expected in the Middle East, North Africa and Asia.

Ukraine and Russia together usually account for more than a quarter of global wheat trade, USI Online wrote. Amid supply disruptions, Chicago wheat futures rose by around 40% from their June low, Pershyi Novynnyi reported, citing Reuters.